Investing for the Peak

Posted: September 14, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: 8. Wealth Management | Tags: , | Comments Off on Investing for the Peak

What “peak”? Well, peak everything, actually.

I’ve been researching where to invest cash for two scenarios, the first being the transitional years I believe we’ve just entered which are marked by a lousy economy and strange up/down market fluctuations related to energy and food stuffs. The second scenario I’ve been researching is where to invest cash in the economy that will emerge from the current shakeup, after the transitional years.

Frankly, I have no idea if this economy will fully emerge in my lifetime, but when I think about investments, I’m automatically thinking very long term…for our kids’ benefit.

We’re currently sitting on all cash and short-term US Treasury bills, split among several different financial institutions. But with hyperinflation looming and the international loss of confidence in the US dollar, our paper assets could dwindle very quickly. My friends in the financial world believe a second major correction on par or worse than the last financial meltdown is coming.

So where do you invest in a post peak world? Well, the most attractive option is to turn those paper assets in real assets, specifically in the form of local business ownership and local farmable real estate.

It was with that thought/question in mind that I attended a recent Post Peak Living seminar titled “Sustainable Post-Peak Livelihoods“. It was a two hour session taught by Sarah and Paul Edwards, with ample time allowed for discussion. I found the content high quality and access to the instructors and Andre (session host and founder of PPL) easy and straightforward. Recommended.

They confirmed two things I had been discussing with my wife, the first was the wisdom in investing in the local businesses in our small town that I felt were serving me well during this series of “opt out” experiments we’ve been doing. Specifically, the two bike shops in town, the local hardware franchise, and the two gardening supply shops. In the transitional years we are just beginning, these would become the core businesses of our town.

The second was a long-standing thought which is any time I’m investing my money, I also want to be investing my time and talent. The folks at Social Venture Partners cemented that idea in my brain more than a decade ago.

But the Edwards opened my eyes to an additional investment opportunity: tradespeople. Whether they are existing woodworkers, plumbers, or electricians, they skills in a post peak world will be at a premium since their ability to travel via car while be severely hampered. We discussed financially investing in both established tradespersons as well as younger folks just coming out of apprenticeship programs.

Switching gears, of the post peak investing books I’ve been reading, I have one only recommendation so far: Profit from the Peak, particularly the epilogue. The book addresses more classical investment vehicles, namely public companies. Several of their recommendations are well thought out and worth mentioning:
  • General Electric (NYSE: GE): largest producer of domestic wind turbines and innovative new hybrid locomotives
  • Zoltek (NASDAQ: ZOLT): US based maker of carbon fiber, which goes into modern wind turbines (and really cool bicycles)
  • Toyota: clearly the leader in hybrid vehicles for consumers, particularly with their upcoming plug-in hybrid (PHEV). Although Peak Oil will likely send all vehicles to the junkyard early, Toyota seems best positioned as a good investment during these transitional years.
  • Railroads; Gates, Buffet, and Soros are all buying into Canadian National Railway, Burlington Northern, Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, and CSX.

Anniversary of 9/11 tragedy

Posted: September 11, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: 1. Philosophy | Tags: , | Comments Off on Anniversary of 9/11 tragedy

On this solemn day, I’m reminded of a quote from Paul Hawken (of the Smith & Hawken garden supply company, among other things).

“Doom and optimism are twins. One does not exist without the other. The only way you can be truly hopeful about the future is to have a very accurate read on the problems of the present.”

Many people think about the War Against Terror and related efforts with a sense of doom because the task seems insurmountable. I disagree. While our US Empire is crumbling – no argument there – I believe this gives us an opportunity to reposition the international US reputation from a very negative one to a positive one. But it is clearly going to
be a multi-generation effort. And it’s going to be led by folks who are thinking clearly about the condition of country is in today.

According to homeopathic doctors, a human body that has suffered from an illness for X months will require *at least* the same number of months for healing. There is no quick, pharmaceutical-induced pill in homeopathy to fix the body in three days or less.

I believe the same is true of the US reputation among other countries. We’ve spent decades casting ourselves in a certain light through our actions and words. We’ll likely have to spend at least the same number of decades recasting a more positive and sustainable attitude.

Hawken’s commencement speech from this past May is a quick and worthwhile read related to challenging the upcoming generation to continue this positive work. The interesting backstory is that he tossed the speech he had written for the occasion and finished this one minutes before the ceremony itself.

Portable chicken coop additions

Posted: September 10, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: 3. Food Security | Tags: , | Comments Off on Portable chicken coop additions

Our first couple of winter-style storms blew through recently. Had a chance to observe the effects on portable chicken coop.

There was no issue with the coop trying to turn into a kite via the tarp and sail off. But I found that if I added another section of tarp on the SW corner (the direction our storms come from), it served two purposes. The new tarp both stops the strong storm wind from chilling the chickens and also provides shade for the longer days of late summer, when the sun can still get quite hot.

In anticipation of our 15 birds beginning to lay eggs for the first time, we also added a few “nest boxes” to the coop as well. These are simply upside down 5 gallon buckets with doors cut into them.

Sand + dichotomous earth on the bottom gives enough weight to keep the buckets upright. The spikes on top keep the chickens from roosting and pooping all over them. I admitted defeat and used store-bought spikes after trying twice to make my own from bamboo sticks.

Injured chicken + chicken tractor = ?

Posted: August 26, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: 3. Food Security | Tags: , | Comments Off on Injured chicken + chicken tractor = ?

One of our Dominiques was getting her butt kicked – literally – by the rest of the chickens a couple of weeks ago. By the time we got to her she had a seriously bloody butt and no feathers left back there.


After separating her and her brood sister off in a temporary pen, I begin pondering solutions. What to do with an injured chicken when you are relying on a portable chicken tractor for the flock, rather than a stationary coop?


I was puzzled for a few days, almost ready to build a second much smaller chicken tractor (and effectively double my daily chicken chores), when I decided to instead try a simple modification to the existing 10′ square tractor.


Here’s a video of the modification (just a line of pipe + wire to separate off an 18″ sliver of the tractor) and the resulting standoff once we reintegrated the birds. Imagine the Gunsmoke theme, or perhaps when the Outsiders lined up against the rival gang. The chickens lined up along the new partition, flapping their wings, pecking at the wire, and giving each other the evil eye. It was hilarious. Well, “hilarious” in a chicken standoff kind of way.


I named the injured chicken Pony Boy. Stay golden, Pony Boy.

Alternatives to gas-powered cars

Posted: August 24, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: 5. Alt Transportation | Tags: , , , , | Comments Off on Alternatives to gas-powered cars

We are blessed with two working cars which are completely paid off. One is gas-powered, the other diesel-powered. We run biodiesel through our VW Passat, which is the primary family vehicle. Great gas mileage and can haul quite a bit of gear + kids. And yes, I’m aware that biodiesel is not a long-term solution as an alternative fuel.

But what to do about our other vehicle, a Subaru Outback? It’s a terrific car, but dependent on gas. And it is primarily used by me for work meetings and errands alone. That’s a single person driving around a wagon capable of hauling quite a bit of stuff. And it is unloaded 90% of the time. Not a good use of resources; both ours and the earth’s. Time to fix this.

THE EXPERIMENT
I’m going to try an experiment of not driving a car by myself for one year.

A few caveats: note this experiment is “by myself”. I’ll still drive when needing to take the kids to school, which is not often. I can always purchase a kid trailer later; for now, I am transporting myself for work meetings and hauling cargo only. Second caveat: I commuted by bicycle for years and still have all that apparel and gear. Third caveat: for the vast majority of my current driving, it is local to our town which measures roughly 4 x 8 miles. That’s a relatively small geography to cover.

But this will be attempting to use a bicycle as a true car replacement, rather than just a commute vehicle replacement. The conditions and scenarios I’ll be riding in:
  • Ride on 5% trails, 15% gravel, 80% road (live on a 1/2 mile gravel road).
  • Weekly trips to town for meetings and light chores (UPS Store; book, drug, and hardware stores).
  • Heavy hauling monthly chores (grocery store; garden supply compost and chicken feed).
  • Four miles one way for all trips.
What am I hauling around town?
  • 100 lbs of chicken feed (two 50 lb. bags).
  • Dojo gear (long thin sticks) and soccer gear (e.g. balls, cleats, cones).
  • Groceries (4-8 bags).
  • Small miscellaneous errand stuff (book, drug, and hardware stores).
  • Medium sized packages for work to/from UPS Store.

THE RIDE
There are several bicycle setups that could handle my needs and the above conditions:
  1. Normal bike + electric assist + trailer.
  2. Electric bike + trailer.
  3. Cargo bike + electric assist.
I eliminated option #1 because I will tend to leave the trailer at home unless I have a specific chore in mind for it, which means I wouldn’t bea able to do any ad hoc cargo pickups. And a good two wheeled trailer is an added $500+ expense.

I eliminated option #2 because electric bikes are not geared for steep hills nor hauling 100 lbs. in a trailer.

Which leaves option #3, a longtail cargo bike. As a lifelong bicyclist, I had never heard of cargo bikes until I began researching them two months ago. Cargo bikes in various forms have been around Europe, but North American bike companies are now seeing the market open up for the longtail version. I like this option best as it moves me very far away from car dependence.

And I get to call myself a cargonista, which is a nifty term a fellow named DL Byron created. Still working on how to effectively combine that term with my recent label “Green Hawk“. In general, I am less concerned about the bike weight and more concerned about pedaling efficiency (especially for hills) and comfort (e.g. not sweating as much).

 

I ordered my option #3 cargo bike last week. I should receive my new 2010 Kona Ute (pictured here) sometime in October/November. Why a new bike rather than used? I could not find a way to build up my own longtail cargo bike for less than the $900 Kona Ute price tag, especially with front/rear disc brakes.

The primary “new bike” alternatives (both great alternatives, BTW) were the Surly Big Dummy ($2500 for a complete bike, before you add electric assist), a Yuba Munda (no disc brakes and I’m not crazy about a one-size-fits-all bike), or one of several hip Xtracycle-equipped options.

Given that I commuted by bicycle for years, I’ve still got all the apparel/gear, so outfitting the bike itself will be my only expense. I should earn all that money back within one year of not incurring the normal driving expenses (gas, oil changes, repairs, etc).

ELECTRIC ASSIST
“Not sweating”? “Electric assist”? What am I, you might be thinking, a wimp?

Well, no. So why does an in-shape bicyclist need electric assist? To conquer these hills while hauling 100 lb loads, and so that I can arrive at work meetings not too sweaty (no shower facilities).

So what exactly is “electric assist” (EA) for bicycles? EA is offers you assistance when pedaling (no pedal, no assistance) so you can ride longer, haul heavier loads, and tackle steeper hills. There are several different mechanisms for adding electric assist to your bicycle. Chris Martenson offers a good summary.

Given that I want front and rear disc brakes (imagine a rainy winter day, loaded with 100 lbs of cargo, going down a steep hill – you want disc brakes), that eliminates the Nine Continent system. And given that I want the dynamo hub on the front wheel for better traction when fully loaded, that eliminates the BionX system. That leaves the systems from Amped Bikes and eZee. Amped’s system is less expensive than eZee’s and gets good ratings. I’ll order their system this week, too.

REPLACING A CAR WITH A CAR?

The two other options my wife and I have discussed for replacing the Outback (but ultimately dismissed) were:

  1. Replace it with a plug in hybrid (PHEV) like the upcoming Toyota Prius. Assuming we are recharging the battery from green energy (we are), this is a decent medium-term solution for transportation. We could be electric only for 90% of the driving time, given our small town commute. Dismissed for large initial cost and the fact that these will not be out for months (an expensive aftermarket mod is available now).
  2. Replace it with a motorcycle, which gets significantly better gas mileage. I’ve ridden for years, but given that we now have young children, my wife is less enamored with this option. And the hauling capacity is not terrific, even with a good set of panniers. And it is still oil-dependent. Three strikes and you are out. Dismissed.
Stay tuned for updates on the one year car-free experiment and tweaks I make to my cargo bike when it arrives.

Solar and wind power

Posted: August 9, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: 4. Energy Security | Tags: , | Comments Off on Solar and wind power

We added a new feature to our view this week. Look closely in the picture and you’ll see a 30′ high pole with a small wind measurement tool on top.

Not everyone is thrilled with the addition; my wife and eldest child both commented on the first day, “Boy, that is ugly.” Oh well.

There are some bright folks (T. Boone Pickens comes to mind) who have teams analyzing wind power. Turns out the US has some of the best wind in the world for harvesting on a mass scale. We put up this measurement device to gather data for one year to see if our specific location is worthwhile for a small wind turbine.

We’re also getting bids for solar, specifically solar tubes to heat our hot water. We live in a difficult place from straight photovoltaic (PV) panels, but may be able to gather enough solar to significantly offset our hot water heater, one of our primary uses of electricity. You might be in a better area; check out this site to test your roof for PV potential. As PV technology improves in the future, I hope to be able to add panels to our roof as well as plant a solar forest in the front yard to replace the garage.

🙂

The only thing that worries me about solar is the current reliance on oil and transport to produce the parts. When oil gets too expensive and then (permanently) goes away, I hope these same bright scientists can quickly convert to other building/transportation methods to get PV installed around the country.

The setup we’re looking to build is 50 tubes on the only two small pitches on our roof that face south, which will lead to a 120 gallon storage tank, which will feed into our existing hot water tank.

While we’re talking about alternative green energy options, I was recently called a Green Hawk by an acquaintance when I brought up the idea of microgrids for our small town.

“I’m a what?”

Green Hawks are those in the environmental movement who tend to think of green solutions as being good for the national defense of our country. Well, good point. I believe we need to get off oil and get off it fast. I guess that does make me a Green Hawk. I’m hoping there is a cool merit badge or secret handshake to go along with the label.

Awareness arrives in stages

Posted: August 6, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: 1. Philosophy, 2. Water Security | Tags: , | Comments Off on Awareness arrives in stages

“Awareness arrives in stages.” A fellow named James Kunstler said that. Wise words.

In my own life, awareness of sustainability issues came in waves. First it was organic food, then Fair Trade products, then green cleaning/building products for the home.

Then the combination of studying Peak Oil, global warming, and the recent US economic financial services meltdown led me to where I am today. Although attempting to foresee the future is tricky at best, preparing for future scenarios is prudent. While I am optimistic about future possibilities (e.g. near limitless energy from geothermal, wind, and solar), I am realistic in planning for more negative eventualities (e.g. a pandemic flu correcting our over-populated areas).

But where to begin? Every once in awhile I feel overwhelmed by the negativeness of it all, or the absurd, massive, endless lists of things that I *could* be preparing for. Then I look at my relatively short prioritized task list, take a deep breath, and move towards getting the next item checked off.

If any of you are thinking that way, here’s your *one* task to do this week: buy a bunch of bottled water (2 gallons per person per day for 30 days) and stick it in a closet (but not on concrete; a chemical reaction fouls the water over time). It seems like alot of water when you are buying it and getting weird looks, but not so much once it is stashed in the closet.

Then smile, relax, and tell yourself you are a great person because you’ve got one month of water stored for your family in case of massive tornados, fires, floods, earthquakes, excessive house guests, whatever.

Now that you have your immediate water needs taken care of, you can start reading through the blog posts on food security.

Why a blog?

Posted: August 5, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: 1. Philosophy | Tags: , | Comments Off on Why a blog?

But why a blog on this topic? Well, in the wise words of Green Day’s Billie Joe Armstrong, “silence is the enemy“. We need to be discussing and sharing best practices for moving ourselves as North American citizens (note I did not say “consumers”) towards sustainability.

One group doing an outstanding group of presenting calm, fact-based discussion on these topics is Future Scenarios. It’s a website/book created by David Holmgren, the co-originator of the permaculture concept. Worthwhile.

Chicken tractor :: learnings thus far

Posted: July 31, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: 3. Food Security | Tags: , | Comments Off on Chicken tractor :: learnings thus far

Learnings after two months of use with our Salatin-inspired chicken tractor:

  • You can’t care too much about your lawn if you use a chicken tractor on it. Even with our portable dust bath box – which they seem to like quite a bit – you are going to get holes in your lawn. I’m currently going around once a week sprinkling seed and a bit of seed starter soil mix on those holes.
  • Giving a quick rinse to the ground that you just moved the coop from gives a big head start to the droppings dissolving into the ground. Important when you still have two little kids wanting to run and play on that lawn.
  • The hardware cloth skirt actually works to keep digging predators at bay. The PVC pipe on the outer edge allows it to float with the tractor when moving it, rather than getting bogged down. This would definitely *not* work with normal chicken wire (too flexible).
  • In this hot, hot summer I’m having to water this portion of our lawn to keep it alive so the chickens can eat on it. Normally I’d let it go brown. Adding the cost of our water and electricity (water pump) to this project is not exciting.
  • We’ve added a separate “chicken scraps” bowl to our kitchen counter that sits beside the “compost scraps” bowl. We’re diverting apple cores, bread crusts, etc to the chickens to supplement their feed.
  • We just planted comfrey, which performs several minor miracles, even though most folks think of it as a weed. We’re using it specifically to accelerate our compost piles and as a chicken feed. Hey, grow your own free chicken feed! Hat tip to the Deliberate Agrarian for the comfrey knowledge transfer.
  • Tying a rock to the edge of the tractor allows the chickens to peck on something hard, wearing down their always-growing beaks.
Changes for next version of chicken tractor (which I hope to not build for at least five years):
  1. Weld two sets of small metal tubes together for the trapdoor joints; the PVC ones already broke. Still OK, though, since zip ties hold the hinge in place.
  2. Two trap doors instead of one. When we place everything inside (2 nest buckets, 1 waterer, 1 feeder, 1 dust bath box), that one quadrant gets a bit hectic. Although it does allow the other three quadrants more open space for the chickens to scoot around in.
  3. Add a temporary divide wall to section off a portion of the coop when introducing (or reintegrating) new birds into the flock. I’ve currently got one of our Dominiques off by herself recovering from almost getting pecked to death by the others. I’m thinking of segmenting off a couple of feet down one side of the tractor just for her when reintegrating her.

Building relationship networks

Posted: July 28, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: 6. Personal Training | Tags: , | Comments Off on Building relationship networks

While some believe emergency preparedness is best done as a solo effort, far away from “civilization” and prying eyes in a remote location, I believe the opposite to be true. Similair to the conclusion that Neil Strauss reached in his Emergency book, I plan to stay and help when the national emergency hits, not run away from it.

More wisdom from Joel Skousen:

“Possessing a few personal friends you can intrinsically trust at all times is one of the most important contingency preperations you can make.”

Part of my personal training is using some of my natural skill set of marketing and networking (Hey! My current skills are not *completely* useless!) to build a strong network of friends and colleagues who share this same passion for being prepared…and specifically being prepared so that we can help others who did not make preparations to weather the next two week power outage due to us selling our electricity to California, the next local volcanic eruption, or the next national/international economic meltdown. It will take a group of folks who are already prepared and thinking clearly to help our country and cities regain positive momentum.

I’m building three overlapping networks of contacts: local, regional, and national.

The national guys are already in place. It was numerous emails with these lifelong friends (“brothers” would be a more accurate term) that led me to create this blog as a time-saving and information-dispersing vehicle. They are each on their own path – somewhere along this continuum of preparations – from bare minimum (storing two weeks of water and a lot of ammo) to significant (way to go St. Louis!). The general idea is that because we are spread all over the US, if a regional emergency dictates that we need to leave quickly for a short duration (Mt Rainier erupts, chemical spill, whatever) we can go to whichever area is safest. On the to-do list: get Canadian passports in case we have no easy way to reach these friends on the other side of the country during an emergency situation. We can always go north.

The regional network is my least developed at this stage. I suspect it will consist mostly of regional farmers and others concerned with food/water security, but I have not spent alot of thought here yet. If there is a future business idea somewhere in all this thinking/planning/doing, it is likely at the regional level. Something that could be freely shared and replicated in other regions of our country and beyond.

The local network is my current focus. I want to get to know folks that I could reach by walking or bicycling, which limits this network to our small town of 23,000 people who live in a (roughly) 4 mile by 8 mile stretch of land. In a world of very expensive gas, I may still be able to afford to drive a vehicle around, but most folks won’t. Which will lead to something we’ll want to avoid: attention and resentment.

Current local plan:
  1. Connect the various parts of our small town via ham radio to maintain contact even during emergencies when our phone and cell systems have shown they can be easily overwhelmed. Specifically have these ham radios sit at locations where we are connecting food, water, and reliable heavy transportation (horses). These radios are not sitting at city government offices, but in private homes of clued-in people.
  2. Map walking/biking/horse riding paths for non-vehicle transportation around our town.
  3. Create my own personal “Board of Mentors” of those who can train me, help me, and join me in leading our small town in preparedness.
Current local network:
  • A close friend who is clued-in and knows many of our local farmers on a first name basis. He’s a rebel rouser who has proven that he can create positive solutions that fly in the face of traditional wisdom. The one who clued me in to Wendell Barry.
  • An acquaintance who is an expert on ham radio, electric vehicles as alternative transportation, and has significant financial resources.
  • A close friend who has recently become a local micro-farmer / micro-rancher. The one who turned me on to Joel Salatin.
  • Several acquaintances who are skilled craftsmen (wood working, plumbing, etc).
  • An acquaintance who is a permaculture expert.
  • A former student who is an alternative energy expert (solar and wind). We’re setting up a tool next week to measure our wind capabilities for the next year.
  • An acquaintance who is an Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) and member of our town’s volunteer fire department. He also trains doing MMA, so he may become a reliable Krav Maga sparring partner as well. Although I’d have to convince him this is not a sport for me, but a way to keep my family and friends safe.

What roles am I missing? You tell me. Either comment below or send me email at optoutenmasse at gmail dot com.

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